Factoring in what each room is good and maybe not so good at, the skill sets each room presents and what Michigan is going to ask from them, these are the stats that will define Michigan's offense in 2024.
Zach Shaw
ANN ARBOR, Mich. — The Michigan football team's 2024 season begins in a matter of days, and the ninth-ranked Wolverines are hungry to defend their 2023 national championship.
To do that, they're going to need theiroffense to exceed expectations this fall. The unit,with just one primary starter returning from last season's group, believes it has potential both on the ground and through the air. In terms of what's proven, however, much of that is still a guessing game.
So how can the group meet the standard it set last fall? Below, we break down a key stat for each of theoffense's position groups. Factoring in what each room is good and maybe not so good at, the skill sets each room presents and what Michigan is going to ask from them, these are the stats that will define Michigan'soffense in 2024.
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Quarterback: Completion percentage
Michigan will miss JJ McCarthy at quarterback this fall, but it doesn't have to be inefficient throwing the ball this fall.
With shifty, after-catch threats at wide receiver and a highly efficient pass-catching tight end (Colston Loveland) and running back (Donovan Edwards), Michigan should once again have three or four legitimate pass-catching options on almost every single pass play. Looking at the room as a whole, this group won't be done making plays downfield once they catch the ball — Semaj Morgan, Tyler Morris, Loveland and Edwards all have memorable receiving touchdowns where they picked up most of the yardage themselves.
That can simplify the job for Michigan's quarterback, as they can move the offense by finding the open man and delivering a catchable pass. Sure, the Wolverines will need to force passes into coverage or take shots downfield. But on average, Michigan should be able to sustain drives and keep opposing defenses guessing with passes in the flats, behind the line of scrimmage or other openings in the defense.
Put more succinctly: Alex Orji doesn't need to be Superman for Michigan's offense to win games. Rather, finding the open man and hitting them accurately would be more than enough in most games.
As such, yards per attempt, yards per completion or even touchdowns aren't overly relevant in how we'll evaluate the quarterback room. As long as Michigan is completing two-third of its passes, it's probably getting the offensive production it wants.
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Conversely, avoidable incompletions will set the Wolverines back into third-and-long situations, and they no longer have an elite third-down quarterback on their roster.
It's also an area where this year's group can stand to improve. We noted Alex Orji was just over 50-percent as a passer in high school, and Davis Warren is below 50 percent in college. Jack Tuttle is just under 60 percent in 199 career attempts.
Michigan's offensive and defensive game plan is often dependent on not giving the opponent a chance to breathe life back into a game. Completing a high rate of passes will go a long way to doing that.
Running back: Yards per carry between the tackles
This running back room has said that it wants opposing defenses to feel its strength this fall, and given the size, weight and tenacity of this room, the potential is certainly there to do that. So for this room's defining stat, let's see how well they hold up to that standard, and measure their success by their efficiency up the middle.
For what it's worth, this is not a perfect stat. Last year, Michigan averaged 4.38 yards per carry up the middle, compared to 5.90 in 2022 and 5.86 in 2021. But 25.0 percent of those 2023 carries went for first downs and touchdowns, so were the yards per carry reduced because of so many Blake Corum short-yardage touchdown runs, and would anyone say that was a bad thing?
Regardless, this year's group comes in a little less proven on runs up the middle, and could stand to improve here. Last fall, Edwards averaged just 3.21 yards per carry between the tackles during the regular season, while the rest of the room coming back this fall, including Kalel Mullings, combined for just 23 such carries in 15 games.
It certainly looks to the eye that this room should be able to run the ball well up the middle, and the last three years have shown how much Michigan likes to grind opponents out by moving the chains with physical runs. How well the group — and the offensive line — fares in this stat will tell us a lot about how well Michigan got to stick to its preferred offensive identity this fall.
Wide receiver: Yards per target
This is a pretty straightforward stat, but one that will tell us how effective Michigan's wide receiver room is this fall. Because whether it's deep shots downfield or short passes on yards after the catch, yards per target focuses on receivers' reception efficiency and ability to pick up yards when the Wolverines opt to air it out.
Drops, big plays, contested catches, efficient catch rates and yards after the catch all factor into this stat. Each receiver has different strengths, but the bottom line is that when they are targeted, Michigan needs them to produce.
Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson set a pretty high bar last season, respectively averaging 11.8 and 9.2 yards per target on 66 and 67 targets. Semaj Morgan and Tyler Morris, meanwhile, averaged 7.6 and 9.4 yards per target last fall. Fredrick Moore was 5.3 in a smaller sample size, while Youngstown State transfer CJ Charleston was 11.0 against FCS competition.
As far as this year is concerned, any rotation regular above 10.0 yards per target is likely an asset to Michigan's offense, while anyone below 7.0 likely isn't justifying consistent targets. The whole offense will adjust to an expected downgrade in quarterback play, but the Wolverines' receivers can control the narrative on their season with their efficiency.
Tight end: First downs and touchdowns
When it comes to Colston Loveland, Michigan is going to ask a lot of him this year. The most important thing he can do, however, is move the chains and score points. Last fall, the then-sophom*ore had 26 first downs and five touchdowns, meaning he moved the chains in some way on 68.9 percent of his catches and 50 percent of his targets. His touchdown clip was a little light for a player of his caliber, but with Blake Corum off to the NFL, there's a solid chance that Loveland hears his name called by the goal line more often, especially in the early stages of Michigan's new quarterback.
And for both Loveland and the rest of the room, moving the chains is the best asset the tight ends can offer. It's still unknown just what the Wolverines' passing game may look like, but it's telling that in this year's spring game, Michigan's tight ends caught 10 of the game's 19 total completed passes. This is Marlin Klein, Zack Marshall and others' safest ticket to getting more playing time.
Without a proven downfield wide receiver game yet, we expect the Wolverines to look to their tight ends quite often to sustain drives and move down the field in a way that complements their defense. And if the room can succeed in that role, Michigan could have the offensive firepower to wear opponents down.
Offensive line: Tackles for loss allowed per game
There are advanced stats we will use to evaluate Michigan's offensive line, such as yards before contact per carry and pressure rate allowed. But with a stellar defense and inexperienced offensive position groups on their sidelines this fall, the Wolverines' primary job along the offensive line is pretty simple this year: Keep the ball moving forward.
So this year, we're defining Michigan's offensive line by a simple stat, in how well it prevents tackles for loss. The Wolverines' led the country in TFLs per game allowed in 2021, and were fourth in the category last season. Though it's also on the rest of the offense and coaching staff to mitigate negative plays, Michigan's offensive line's focus should be on getting the Wolverines at least back to zero yards on each play.
Why does it matter more this year? For starters, Michigan's offense doesn't have an experienced quarterback who has a proven ability to sit back and make plays in obvious passing downs under pressure. The Wolverines also seem likely to have more quarterback runs this fall, and their running back room doesn't yet have someone as regarded for making plays happen in traffic as Blake Corum did.
Michigan's offense will be at its best this season if it can avoid passing downs, mix things up, minimize turnovers and keep opponents guessing. That isn't happening as much on 3rd-and-13 as it is on 3rd-and-4.
The Wolverines' offensive line can really do the rest of the team a lot of favors helping Michigan get back to the line of scrimmage. We'll say 4.0 TFL per game allowed or less is a "success" here.
